In 2016, Robert Cahaly of The Trafalgar Group used unorthodox polling to correctly predict five swing states and Donald Trump's electoral college tally. Rebuffing skeptics, he says undercounted voters will again elect Trump.
#Smerconish #2020Election #CNN #News
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The only job I have is voting.
@I’m Trump
So Then GODS Decision Has Elected All Presidents.
@I’m Trump Stop invoking God for He wants no part of man’s dirty politics.
@Tootsie Troll trump lost by 2% yet he got elected đ thank u god
America has finally reasons to be proud
@I’m Trump
You’re disrespectful when you spell God in lower case.
Says a lot about you
This guys about to become either the biggest hero in polling history or a clown. Well
Loose Oozy- he’s already a clown! Not a very good one, but a clown.
@John michael PLEASE SEEK PROFESSIONAL HELP!!! FOR GOD’S SAKE YOU NEED IT!
Another smart guy, Allan Lichtman, predicts a Biden win — and he has gotten Presidential wins correctly since 1984!
He got right on 2016 and 2018. Good enough. Nothing to lose if wrong this time. But if he gets right again, all the clowns of pollsters need to go home.
@Karen McClure your calls profesionnally are not based on the team you barrak for its whether or not what you do works.
VOTE VOTE VOTE. Ignore every poll itâs that simple.
Trump2020! đşđ¸đŹđžđşđ¸
@Lee Walsh Did Texas turn blue? Oh wait! It didn’t. People like you, Lee, are the reason the Satan worshiping pedophiles in the Democrat party still have power. Sad.
Damn samantha, sexy
@QUID-PRO-QUO JOE what will you say to everyone if trump looses? Will you be angry ? Do you think Trump is throwing a tantrum saying there is fraud going on ? Iâm just curious. And do you think he is a non professional president?
TRUMP 2020
Throw out the polls. Just get every person to vote. PERIOD.
@Scream Fortress I hear you. And aliens are impersonating our leaders and Trump is here to save the day.
I understand. Go with that. Thanks for the comment. I really appreciate you sharing. It shows that you care
Millions don’t vote.
@konroth rec. Their elections don’t count. Putin ALWAYS WINS!
@Robin Clemens your system does not look very promising either
@Scream Fortress OKaly Dokaly. I will watch that movie when it comes out.
Michael Moore was predicting a Trump win by taking the Rust Belt as early as June 2016.
â@Timothy Huggins You need to do some basic reading and actually learn what a strawman fallacy is, ok genius?
God please let trump win đ
@Samantha Briggs Nice try, but wrong.
A straw man fallacy occurs when someone takes another personâs argument and distorts it or exaggerates it in some kind of extreme way, and then attacks the extreme distortion, as if that is really the claim the first person is making, when it is not.
Strawman’s typically start with, “so what you’re saying is…” in order to distort what another person is actually saying and then argue against a position that they’ve not taken.
+1 social media credit to you though for using a passive aggressive Ad Hominem attack in calling me a “genius” after falsely claiming that I don’t know what I’m talking about, in order to imply that I’m not intelligent.
Try harder.
@videoguyinfinity
Nah… He’s saying people do want to be falsely accused of being racist… By people who that would vow to burn their homes down.
@Timothy Huggins dawg u really need to get a life damn
Trafalgar polling is more correct, as they don’t ask the individual who they will be voting for, but who their friends and family will be voting for. There’s too many people who won’t admit they’ll vote for Trump, but they will.
@Robin D Hood I promise you- Trump’s run is over.
@Erik Draper Not gonna happen. The people won’t allow it anymore.
@mss burr There will be no dramatic civil war. 𤣠Trump is going to pack and get out. Over and done….
I will trust the guy (Robert) who has been right in the last two elections.
CNN: âhereâs what the Washington post guy says.â
Echo chamber
Spot on. Also known as fake news resonance
Lmfao I thought same thing. âHey this is what Nate silver said about you!â Oh Nate silver the democrat who thought Hillary had a 85% chance of winning in 2016?
Quoting T the Washington Post is like quoting Bob the snake oil salesman.
âReal Pollsters try to avoid his method however he they beat you guys in every election! Ha ha ha ha whoâs the phony and whose the real pollster??
I think Trump will win, but youâre using âwhoseâ wrong.
@Michelle Peacock Trump 2020 baby
CNN on OCT 6. Poll: Clinton leads Trump by double digits in Michigan
@Ohh Yeahhh make sense thatâs not even Chinese idiot
@Ohh Yeahhh itâs Japanese smartass
Lmao not looking good for you. 4 more years
If Trump doesn’t win I’ll be very surprise …I think he will take Pennsylvania and Michigan…
@wayofthegun
He did not get michagen.
If Biden loses Trafalgar will be the ONLY poll firm still in business after Nov 2020
biden will win. looking at the current numbers he will probably surpass 270
@Lord Commissar “This is not a college essay” LOL you would have to go to college first low ed.
@Bloviator Magnus going to college has nothing to do with a YouTube comment section Grammer and spelling is not tested here.
I’m trying to assume your a troll but you just seem dumb
@henry day see again, they have not add some number from some states…they are just laying arount to generate specuations
Thats true, i hope he is wrong.
This guy is taking into consideration all the thing you learn in basic Stats in high school
Exactly! I said the same thing lol
Good point.
Yah and so far he’s been right so why are the other media sights not working at a high school level?
That’s why stats were taught in high school. Stats make sense.
This pollster is right… I believe a lot of people are saying âBiden! Yeah I voted for himâ ….. but voting for Trump
@Blabiator Magnus trump will probably win
@Matt poor poor turd flake
@NO NAME NEEDED I’m crying right now because Trump is about to lose đđđđ
@Jared Simpson I feel sorry for you đ
Everyone calm down arguing I was just saying based on his statistics heâs already wrong
LOL FiveThirtyEight gave trafalgar group a C- , how can that be if he was one of the few to get 2016 right!?
Cause those gaining success will also be gaining haters as a result
The Trafalgar guy makes a lot of sense and successfully rebuffs criticism of the Washington Post, Nate Silver and Dave Wasserman.
Hes wrobg now
So, pollsters are taking sample sizes of about 1000 people in a state (Michigan in this instance) that has an active voter registration list of 6,764,903 people and a total register voter list of over 7.7 million? That means they polled 0.015% of the active voting population. This is why polls are absolutely meaningless.
This guy and his polling had consistently schooled every other poller. Thereâs no bias on his end which is why heâs correct over 90% of the time. If the Democrats would quit listening to the fake polls and start listening to him theyâd increase theyâre chances of winning by quitting the assumption of âIts in the bagâ as in 2016.
@Seaton Cummings hmm interesting.. can you explain what about my statements sound stupid?
Well this time he was wrong.
@Oneofthe 12
“Youâre a follower not a critical thinker” you don’t have to believe every conspiracy theory you google to be a critical thinker. I used to believe I was a critical thinker when I believed in conspiracy theories. in reality though conspiracy theories lack substance and evidence. The main problem I have with conspiracy theories is that not only do they lack evidence but they often times confuse randomness for ill intent. they often create links that are not there. our human brains fear randomness so much we have created religions to protect us from it. This same fear is what creates conspiracy theories. an example of this is the story of Seth Rich people just could not accept that he was shot on his way home being mugged. conspiracy theorists claimed that it had to do with emails but did not have evidence for that. They used the absence of evidence as evidence. This however is not evidence. This is conspiratorial thinking. one of the things that pulled me out of the conspiratorial mind set. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WoYjIDwbzLY&t=119s
this isn’t really about beliefs.. all beliefs are irrational my friend. purge them from your mind. I bet 2 people 1,000 dollars trump would lose 3 weeks ago. I wasn’t betting because I like Biden and I “believed” he could win. I Bet because based on the objective data I had a 90% chance of being right. I am a statistics major. I believe nothing but the numbers and the numbers were telling a story.
“you have rattled off some statistics given to you by the very people that are lying to the people” hmm how do you know they are lying?? what makes the sources you listen to any better at telling the truth? how many lies do they tell vs how many truths? how often do they lie? and how do you know which lies are lies and which ones are true? do you have any evidence that everything the media says is a lie? how do you know they were lies vs actual mistakes (we are human and people make mistakes)? I think it is important to quantify. I also think it is important to note that just because some one has lied about a few things does not mean they lie about everything. and unless you have evidence that the media lies about every single thing they ever said then you can’t make that claim based on 5 lies the media has said. the absence of evidence is not evidence
“Also to make people that are close to the truth look like idiots. With using words such as âconspiracy theoryâ” used to be a “conspiracy theorist” until I was so skeptical that I became skeptical of the people feeding me the conspiracy theories. It is a very interesting thing really. how humans place trust in certain things because they “feel right” or align with our world view. In general why do you place so much trust in random people like alex jones or some random website that is telling you something? its because you have an idea and you are looking for evidence to prove it is correct. this happens subconsciously and I myself even do it.
“I just had to slap you so youâd quit repeating broken record words (trigger words) ” you didn’t slap me with anything I havn’t already heard from the hundreds of conspiracy theorists I have talked with. nothing about you is special. nothing about your argument is special. you have not proven anything. you have not sourced any evidence. all you have done is present claims based on nothing which is what most conspiracy theorists do.
@MrObveous777 I told you that youâd call me a conspiracy theorist just like the good little follower you are. I also would never watch a followers video. You turned around and said exactly what I said youâd say. You didnât read the message if you did you would t have recited back what I said youâd say. Unoriginal just like I said. Way to prove me right bud đ
@Philip Mclaughlin well I guess we will see. Or will we see that fake ballots that are watermarked were used and ya boy ends up being the crook that woke people know he is. Remember the watermarked comment bc itâll come up soon.
Only one smoking something is CNN and how wrong they will be again…
Idk man đ this is going to be crazey
âReputableâ pollsters are wrong consistently, they are like 2nd graders trying to do linear algebra, they are incompetent at their one job.
Trafalgar is right but he forgot to say that after Trump wins again, CNN ratings will be even worse