Whether President Donald Trump wins or loses a second term, Tuesday's election proved something beyond the shadow of a doubt: the way we poll, analyze and predict election outcomes is broken.
In his latest episode of The Point, CNN’s Chris Cillizza explains how the traditional political forecasts didn't accurately measure Trump.
SOURCES AND FURTHER READING:
Biden’s Path to 270 Widens, Trump’s Path Narrows, as Texas Moves to Toss Up
New poll shows Clinton over Trump by double-digits
‘People Are Going To Be Shocked’: Return of the ‘Shy’ Trump Voter?
About me:
I was named "best dressed" in 7th grade. That, along with being CNN's editor at large and author of the daily "Point" newsletter are my proudest achievements. Look for me here every Tuesday and Thursday to find out what’s really going down in politics.
CREDITS
Writer: Chris Cillizza
Producer: Allison Gordon
The Point Editor: Leigh Munsil
Video Editor: Steven Sevilla
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#CNN #News #Election
Hey, Chris here. How closely did you follow the polls before the election?
I was interested in the pre-election national polls/data as a curiosity but I knew better to not trust that data ever. It’s very clear that the sample set for most political polling is not representative of the diverse groups existing within that population. There are some real challenges in getting that right.
I bought in to Allan Lichtman, not the polls. The Dems need to work with this guy! Genius.
@R Mcdud The Republicans will hold the Senate. First time since 1884 that a Democrat President will enter office without control of both branches of government. Socialist policy from the House will die at the Senate. Unconstitutional Executive orders will die at the Supreme Court. It will be a lame duck presidency until 2022 to which the house will likely flip to Republican as it has done just about every time since 1940. No packing the courts, no statehood for DC or Puerto Rico, No naturalization of 20 Million illegal aliens. Dead in the water and now a changing base to witch Trump boosted Latino vote to 35% and Black vote to 17%(20% is all that’s needed to end Democrats winning the majority of elections). In my state he flipped 8 predominately Latino counties, including one that Hillary won by 79%. No more identity politics for you 🤣😂🤣😂 And all you idiots could focus on is Trump 🤣 And to top it off you had significant losses in the state legislative positions, in a redistricting year that will affect policies and elections for the next 10 years. It just gets better and better 😂😁
I have been skeptical of them since 2016; probably for the rest of my life.
@Cuckpiro nope thats the sound of us cleaning our 💪
Nope.
Trump is broke… financially and morally.
Yes that Trump is an idiot…worth 2.5 to 3.5 billion and if he loses he will make millions doing speeches…like Obama!
@Tim Ryan Get off it…Russia and Putin does not give a crap who the president is…Putin is a billionaire dictator but you have no clue about Russian history.
@Jack Smith
So you think meat of Putin tastes good? 🤭
@Jack Smith most PeePS watching/commenting have NO Clue about any History, even their Own.
@Tim Ryan You’re either an idiot or just ignorant. Do some research and start thinking for yourself.
I can’t stand Trump but I actually like that he has exposed how broken our country is.
the anti-Trump fake news media,
@StarkRaving Ralph
Don’t give me the bleeding heart nonsense. Again Your taught what to care about.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifjzQxY-Jag
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2N8ntGWc-SA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPS_HvE2oM0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wp68QI_9r1s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Upd96OSBPk
https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2017-01-17/obamas-covert-drone-war-in-numbers-ten-times-more-strikes-than-bush
@MrSlade Yeah no, I go against the grain, I have my OWN compass. I don’t need anyone telling me what’s right or wrong but if you’re that cruel to not care, America doesn’t need you, people like you, or Trump. GTFO of here.
StarkRaving Ralph false …Trump exposed the corrupt democrat party who today broke the law and wouldn’t let vote watchers in the facility when the law states they are allowed…these are facts ..please watch the real news and get educated ..I don’t blame you it’s the democrats fault for Brain washing y’all lol I don’t understand why you all want America you get worse rather then prosper with Trump it just doesn’t make sense lol
@Benny Blanco Stop believing all Trump Media tries to throw at you. Adults use REAL sources. 👋👋
I love that Tribe shirt
11/4/2020 LOS ANGELES HARVESTING MAIL IN BALLOTS AFTER THEY CALLED CALIFORNIA FOR BIDEN
TAKE A LOOK FOLKS – GET A TASTE OF DEMOCRAT RUN STATES.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEYiKnXJgR0
@Anthony S2K04 I watched your video, what are the post by dates on those ballets huh? If they are post marked for before or the day of Nov 3 then they are legal.
@Jeebuz
The point is ballots not accounted for before the media declares the WINNER. Is that obvious to you.
What if the shoe was on the other foot. One has to realize it’s not party AFFILIATION but the honest of our system. Otherwise we are no different the HITLER’S REGIME. THINK ABOUT IT.
“Person, woman, man, camera, TV”
Doesn’t count he is white!
Trump didn’t break politics, his enablers, the GOP in government, encouraged him by doing nothing.
@Underground Frenchy no he isn’t, Y’all 😂😂😂
11/4/2020 LOS ANGELES HARVESTING MAIL IN BALLOTS AFTER THEY CALLED CALIFORNIA FOR BIDEN
TAKE A LOOK FOLKS – GET A TASTE OF DEMOCRAT RUN STATES.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEYiKnXJgR0
@Anthony S2K04 😂😂😂 YOU FUNNY
@punchcat07
We will see who laughs last.
There is no real difference in the parties. Only the most naive people still believe in the blue vs red garbage.
The curtain has been pulled back on the all-powerful wizard of oz.
@Franken Yankin trump has been in the spot light since the early 80s……hes not going anywhere.
Anthony S2K04 you lost girl. Go cry somewhere else.
@Sina Bagheri Sarvestani they have the right to see the process and they are not allowing that they also had a court order to go in at arizona and still denied its very strange and odd.
@Harold Moore
Sounds and apparent you all feel your losing and the Democrat communist party corruption is evident and on the forefront of every American citizen. Get ready to crawl back under your dark rock for 50 or more years. Democrats should be ashamed. But for the good of our country, nation and world the minions of SATAN are exposed. Knowing your enemy gains advantage. Maybe you cant comprehend?
https://youtu.be/xR3ksyZ9dBI Covid steals Trump victory,, who ever wins, please God help us to over come all the hurdle
Anybody else here take a moment to just appreciate the A Tribe Called Quest shirt?
Listen to this song https://youtu.be/V8EwfipjWZE
11/4/2020 LOS ANGELES HARVESTING MAIL IN BALLOTS AFTER THEY CALLED CALIFORNIA FOR BIDEN
TAKE A LOOK FOLKS – GET A TASTE OF DEMOCRAT RUN STATES.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEYiKnXJgR0
He isn’t black so it’s Cultural Misappropriation!
Cultural Misappropriation! I am offended!
ARE REAL WE ALL AMERICANS FOR THE AMERICA FUTURE????
See the FACT NEWS!!!!
FOXNEWS, OANNEWS!!!!!
VOTORS FRAUD IN FAMOUS PHILADELPHIA, PA !!!!!
In Arizona the Trumpers are outside the processing center chanting, “Count those votes!”
In Georgia the Trumpers were chanting, “Stop the count!”
¯_(ツ)_/¯ You can’t make this up.
@Joseph Perez conspiracies? Biden confused his own father’s name, he couldn’t remember Obama’s name and shouted help during debates. I Hope the civil unrest make you smarter or wipe you out of existence, either way win win. Oh one more thing, I’ve noticed that democrats say America is a laughing stock for the world, yeah but not what you’re thinking. Good luck from Europe.
11/4/2020 LOS ANGELES HARVESTING MAIL IN BALLOTS AFTER THEY CALLED CALIFORNIA FOR BIDEN
TAKE A LOOK FOLKS – GET A TASTE OF DEMOCRAT RUN STATES.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEYiKnXJgR0
Count votes that came in after the deadline? I understand why they would state to stop…
@Rich Hich
40 years have never seen what happened.
Back in august USPS union worker endorsed Biden saying our survival depends on it….USPS loses 300 000 ballots and all return ballots have D or R on the envelope so they know who voted for who. Even if the election isn’t a fraud that should investigated….and it shows maturity from the right. If Trump loses he sues and fight for his voters where if Biden loses the left will riot and fight on behalf of their leader Biden. No one has been able to rebuttal this yet lol probably because I’m right and staying silent is a good move
This is the most depressing election of all time.
We won’t be remembering that way though lol
@Sebin Mathew more blacks voted for trump than any other republican in history. Your media in America is atrocious- need independent media as there’s a lot of brain washing and making out trump to be bad – all the same people own all the major media.
Not for conservatives Americans.
We pray for the truth to be brought in front of our eyes regardless. Lord hear our prayers.
@laura westra absolute joke a country . the most obvious coup attempt ive seen since Ukraine.
@sola scriptura You can stop with the bs hypocrisy by quoting the Bible. trump had the WH, Senate, House, DOJ, SCOTUS and for four years did nothing for the lower/middle class. He inherited a booming economy from Obama and let it collapse, he was impeached for strong arm tactics against an ally, no jobs bill, student debt forgiveness bill, totally failed on the virus, kidnapped children from their parents, allowed Putin to put bounties on our troops heads and said nothing, all of his top brass says he’s a f*cking moron at best, he cheated on his pregnant wife with a prostitute, etc., etc., etc. A complete failure in business and morality, yet you voted for this unscrupulous, mendacious person. What does that say about you?
As an outsider I’ve never understood the US obsession with campaign spending.
The US is full of ignorant, uneducated and easily manipulated people. When they see an ad over and over again or hear the same thing from the MSM you can make them do anything. Even hating someone without actual reason or through lies.
Americans are obsessed with the money they think with money you can buy anything.
They’re trying to win.
@Vilda Chaya Always thought the way Frump went about his first campaign was weird. Particularly with the difference between what he said and actually did in regards to his campaign finances. It always seemed like he was running a campaign for the campaign money, and actually winning in the end was accidental. At least on his part. He likely acted the part to the people around him so they’d be enthused. If running a campaign was a way to launder money, I would not at all be surprised.
Its called, “Pay to play”
I help you today, you pay me back when you’re in power.
I am convinced that voter suppression had a part in this outcome.
@Anthony S2K04 no thanks. we don’t care what lies trump, the GOP, fox news, q-anon, prager u, alex jones, rush limbaugh and the rest of trump’s criminal cartel are spreading.
@Manuel you heard him, he swayed his own voters the other way with his stupidity
@Adam Geiger lol
Trump will be in a jail cell in 4 years
@Manuel And we all no matter what side we’re on should all want a fair election. If its not fair how can anyone take it serious anymore. That is the single handedly most dangerous thing that can happen to all of us. Worse than that racist fascist dictator somehow gaining more minority votes
🔥🔥CHINA appreciates the US cooperation in its own self destruction.
Land of the Naive & Home of the Insane…🔥🔥
@Scott Griffiths Suuure 🤦🏽♂️😂😂. Like I said, no official investigation with Biden, trump MULTIPLE open cases! 😂😂😂😂
@Sean M I think Trump should be investigated and if he’s guilty then he should face the penalty of law…..all I’m saying is Biden should be investigated and held to the same standard…..is that so difficult to understand 🤷♂️
11/4/2020 LOS ANGELES HARVESTING MAIL IN BALLOTS AFTER THEY CALLED CALIFORNIA FOR BIDEN
TAKE A LOOK FOLKS – GET A TASTE OF DEMOCRAT RUN STATES.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEYiKnXJgR0
China has been laughing happily ever since Trump was elected. This chaos we have is exactly what China wanted, it will take years to clean it up, and to be fair Biden or Harris aren’t the best people to clean it up
@Scott Griffiths 35%er
Biden’s been investigated twice alreay.
And the FBI thinks all Rudy’s laptop “evidence” is GRU disinformation, just like all of the other “evidence” he’s released been proven to be.
Rudy is even being considered for investigation for espionage, due to his relationship with the known GRU agent that gave him all of the bunk information.
You really need to pull your head out of the echo chamber within Methaleptic Mussolini’s butthOle.
You’ve been duped into the willful ignorance “fake news” doctrine, of the magacult sheep.
(Quack!!}-🐑
🇺🇸Two Dimensional Patriotism🇺🇸
(For display purposes only)
“I love the poorly educated, they got me elected.”
~donald j. trump
DUMP 2020
Make America
Smart Again
🤘🤓
“Person, woman, man, camera, TV”
YESSIRRRR!! Lmao
” Children used to play with my leg hair in the pool , and I love kids jumping on my lap ” – Biden
” If you’re dont vote for me you ain’t black ”
” I learned about roaches ” – Biden , when referring to black kids .
” vOters don’t deserve to know if I’ll pack the court ” .
@gerardoxx25 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UE9BXkQ-SRc
@gerardoxx25
I’m anti-fascist it’s a good thing I’ve come to terms with it
I’m glad you brought up Twitter. The media needs to start realizing that it doesn’t represent much of anything.
Back in august USPS union worker endorsed Biden saying our survival depends on it….USPS loses 300 000 ballots and all return ballots have D or R on the envelope so they know who voted for who. Even if the election isn’t a fraud that should investigated….and it shows maturity from the right. If Trump loses he sues and fight for his voters where if Biden loses the left will riot and fight on behalf of their leader Biden. No one has been able to rebuttal this yet lol probably because I’m right and staying silent is a good move
@Your Big Head Cousin That difference seems to be shrinking all the time as news media deliberately mimics social media.
@Anthony S2K04 Cute bot
@William Crinigan
Thanks for playing.
@Bass Player “rebutt”, no one has been able to “rebutt”.
Years from now they’re gonna ask us, Where were you when we lost our
constitutional rights. Most of you can answer I voted for the people
that took them away.
No Peter. The question they will ask, is : “Where were you when the second civil war broke out”.
11/4/2020 LOS ANGELES HARVESTING MAIL IN BALLOTS AFTER THEY CALLED CALIFORNIA FOR BIDEN
TAKE A LOOK FOLKS – GET A TASTE OF DEMOCRAT RUN STATES.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEYiKnXJgR0
A+ comment 😎👍
Back in august USPS union worker endorsed Biden saying our survival depends on it….USPS loses 300 000 ballots and all return ballots have D or R on the envelope so they know who voted for who. Even if the election isn’t a fraud that should investigated….and it shows maturity from the right. If Trump loses he sues and fight for his voters where if Biden loses the left will riot and fight on behalf of their leader Biden. No one has been able to rebuttal this yet lol probably because I’m right and staying silent is a good move
Every president in world history who lost:
“Im sure my opponent is going to do a great job running this country, i congratulate him on this victory”
Now trump after losing: “im going in with my lawyers”
@Susan Walls
Yes, keep sharing our knowledge and educating others GENZ voted like 35 year old conservatives as they have decide what AMERICA they want, a safe secure one for their families when they have one. Many patent are raising their children RIGHT!
Back in august USPS union worker endorsed Biden saying our survival depends on it….USPS loses 300 000 ballots and all return ballots have D or R on the envelope so they know who voted for who. Even if the election isn’t a fraud that should investigated….and it shows maturity from the right. If Trump loses he sues and fight for his voters where if Biden loses the left will riot and fight on behalf of their leader Biden. No one has been able to rebuttal this yet lol probably because I’m right and staying silent is a good move
Because Joe Biden got illegal votes.
@Susan Walls AND DONE NOT ONE BENIFICIAL THING.
And he’ll conveniently forget to pay them.
Disinformation and Conspiracy Theories greatly affected this election.
I’m sure you consider every accusation against a Democrat to be a conspiracy theory.
Back in august USPS union worker endorsed Biden saying our survival depends on it….USPS loses 300 000 ballots and all return ballots have D or R on the envelope so they know who voted for who. Even if the election isn’t a fraud that should investigated….and it shows maturity from the right. If Trump loses he sues and fight for his voters where if Biden loses the left will riot and fight on behalf of their leader Biden. No one has been able to rebuttal this yet lol probably because I’m right and staying silent is a good move
I don’t like Trump, but he is having this election stolen right out from under him.
Trump didn’t break politics, he exposed it.
Amazing how everything cnn says is the exact opposite of reality.