Pollster and communication strategist Frank Luntz joins "CNN This Morning" to discuss the 2022 midterm elections and why pundits and poll watchers got their predictions wrong. #CNN #News
He predicted a GOP Senate win. Hear what went wrong
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It’s not who’s going to win or lose its about who is going to do the best for the people.
I think it’s good to remember that gerrymandering affects the House rather than the Senate. So states controlled by one party or the other do not have that particular tool to influence what are statewide elections.
You see what happen in Michigan when the people voted to end gerrymandering and made Unconstitutional in State Constitution to gerrymander for 40 years Republicans held both the House and Senate in state government now it held by the Democrats.
But that’s exactly why Trump pushed through the 2020 Census… so that Red States could gerrymander an unfair advantage (which many did as part of “election security”…a few, like AK, were sued because of how biased their redistricting was. Because of the existing bias on SCOTUS no state was forced to adjust biased redistricting) that’s why… even as “Dark Brandon” rose & got policies passed… Republicans were still (are still) expected to win the House. They structured it that way after the Census & The Big Lie
I think that pollsters only predict the immediate sentiment of a sample of voters and tend to try to sway or create bias among the electorate. Let’s remember that most states have early mail-in-ballots. So when the SCOTUS overturned Roe v. Wade there was a backlash of voters who locked in their early votes of protest. Then you have the MAGA’s whose extreme views and divisiveness supported radical wealthy white men who are fearful of assertive women and the multicultural ethnic shift of power towards the majority and the new Democratic party. It’s a cultural war where democracy is threatened by the privileged few and their surrogates who thrive on fear and bigotry.
Without the un-democratic benefits of gerrymandering and voter suppression, the GOP would never achieve a majority in either the house or the senate.
@invisibleink That’s the issue that most voters are in agreement. If the GOP truly want voter intregity to exist then creating an independent commission on redistricting would eliminate any future “gerrymandering” for both parties. Because the DNC loss its court challenges in NY. We lost four possible seats in Congress. If we make Election Day a paid holiday that would be an additional incentive for everyone to vote. While the GOP has super majority representation in most “red” states hindering any legislative reform for most minorities or women’s reproductive rights. Violating an American citizen the right to choose. If you have only one choice. Then you really have no right to choose! Desantis really didn’t win. He just stacked the deck! There was really no alternative for a democrat if you’re outnumbered by a predominately Republican electorate. Look at our SCOTUS. There’s really no room for desention….
It’s the questions the polls asked and how they interpreted the answer. I got polled twice over the last month. The poll asked how I felt about the economy, asked how I felt about crime, asked what party I identified as…. never once asked who I was planing voting for or who I actually believe is responsible for those issues. Don’t ask straight up, your not going to get a straight answer
Goatskin never change.
@drakus40k Amen 🙏, and we are not alone.
@T Also the elections in Arizona have been run by Republicans for DECADES.
Are you certain it was a predictive poll? Polls are taken to assess the issues important to likely voters without trying to identify who they will vote for. This is done constantly.
@dave marr Why?
Frank Luntz is good at talking himself out of self made predicaments.
CNN AIN’T TOO MUCH BETTER BECAUSE THEY BELIEVED THE RED WAVE HYPE TOO AND AS SENATOR CHUCK SCHUMER SAID THIS MORNING ON CNN,”THAT’S WHY THEY DON’T PAY ATTENTION TO THE NEWS FAKE EXPERTS!! WHO HAPPEN TO BE PEOPLE FROM OTHER SHOWS ON CNN!!🤣😅😂
@Cynthia Hansen for real? He’s very well respected by every signal media source
THIS!! 😅
He’s also good at blowing hot air out his arse.
Frank said that Trump is like a “ Friday the 13th” movie were Freddy keeps coming back.
Freddy Cougar was “ Nightmare on Elm Street “. Jason Voreese was “ Friday 13th”. No wonder his polls are wrong.
This guy is like, “I take responsibility, but I don’t TAKE responsibility. And it’s not my fault if I get it wrong. My polling was wrong, but, see, I wasn’t wrong. See?”
No
I love how he doesn’t want the media to cover polls. The mistake he makes is when media stops covering polls, well, they won’t be bringing him on any more. I think the media tries its best.The talking heads at CNN may be liberal but at the end of the day they’re more focused on looking like the smartest people in the room. These pollsters are making CNN and the Republican media outlets look very stupid. I’ve never been a reporter but it must not be fun when one’s sources are incompetent jerks like Frank and liars.Then again, if the truth ain’t juicy, print the fiction, I guess.
He does polling. He is not responsible for what is done with the results by 24 hour news networks, desperate for something to talk about and entertain their audience in a stretched out news cycle. What all this shows, is 24 hour news networks are part of the problem. Good journalism is boring, but making a song and dance about a poll is cheap and entertaining to the audience.
Jane Wison – Precisely correct; in fact… one could take the second word in your sentence and change it to “GOP” and it would be exactly precise.
Sounds like a Republican
When me and mine discuss politics, you know how often we discuss whether Biden will run again? NEVER. We have discussed how obsessed the media is with asking that of every politician. I wish they would stop that and discuss actual news.
But as a lifelong til the day I die Democrat I do NOT want Biden to run again. And I am far from alone.
Biden is a decent man but even in his prime he wasn’t a brilliant man. Call me crazy for thinking we can do better than a man who will be well into his 80s during the next presidential term.
Every one of my family and friends from age 30 through age 90 agree. Joe Biden is too old, slow and mediocre to be president.
@Tom Mitchell no thanks.
@Radagast Brown being brilliant doesn’t help in achieving anything in Politics. Just gonna leave it here.
@Radagast Brown Biden is way better than a lying fascist crook like Trump — we can all agree on that
@Radagast Brown I’m not a Democrat or a Liberal and I want Biden to run again and the reason I’ve never actually joined the party is because HYPOCRITES like you are in it helping Republicans with their false narrative about Democrats!! You should just change to Republican if you’re going to help 😉 Republicans!!
If you don’t say “We have been reporting on GOP funded polls as actual news, SORRY.” Then I’m going to scream. Mark Twain had it right. “Lies, damn lies and statistics.”
Right, I did marketing forecasting for 5 years. I could make those numbers sing anyway they asked me to.
I went to the same college as Luntz and the school newspaper was making fun of him back then for taking himself too seriously. Some things never change!
@An Acc I did! No one heard me but I did.
He’s a bloviating right wing Fox News stooge.
I’ve never liked Luntz and you just verified my instincts were right.
idk this dude, but yes, he is taking himself wayyy too seriously. it’s like, ok, you got it wrong, accept it and get over it
It’s really weird that many pollsters say “we did have other predictions” but that always seems like a lame fail safe when media pushes one over the other. No abundance of caution ever with each election cycle.
Right, like saying both teams count win the game. Really, ya think?
But then we have to be willing to accept, we don’t know what is going to happen, until everyone votes.
No matter what, it is still always the same, BETTER POLITICIANS START WITH BETTER VOTERS.
Frank Luntz needs to take a poll on how believable his fake hair is.
@Tom Mitchell Insecurity
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
😅😅
🤣😂😅😂😊😮
Well he went to the same guy Trump used.
Frank Luntz is constantly explaining why he was wrong this time.
THIS!’
I wonder if in HS and later in college… if his fellow students called him “Frank Klutz”.
I am a Canadian who wasn’t sure if the US democracy would survive this election. My faith in the average American has grown.
@Nocturnal RecluseReally..? Where are the election deniers and people attacking the seat of our democracy..?
Oh..🤭 that’s right,that’s America..NOT Britain..😉
No. What? Still americans. Noth7kg chnaged still ignorant society
@asa asare ameeicans had 100s of years to get rid of racims and they didnt english have notjing to do woth
@H K Plus, Trump was Putins puppet.
Y’all clearly don’t even know what democracy or legitimate freedom is. You’ll soon find out
“Conservatives don’t respond to polls because they think it might be used against them.” I’m sorry what? Just once I’d like a journalist to ask a hard hitting follow-up question
Thats a bunch of malarkey. 😂
THEN GET READY TO BE DISAPPOINTED ALOT FROM CNN NEWS HOSTS WHO WORRY ABOUT BEING FAKE POLITICALLY CORRECT AND NOT WANTING TO OFFEND ANYONE!!😅🤣😂
@Mickelodian Surname I don’t find that an explanation for a country like the US changing from a free-market open economy with law and order, into a quasi Socialist, even Communist, country with a terrible crime rate and more and more destitute people sleeping on its streets !
It’s a VERY easy concept to grasp, if you understand Republicans, especially The Far Right.
The Far Right thinks EVERYTHING is used against them, and EVERYONE is out to get them, they are 100% defined by their Persecution Complex. And their Chicken Little, Sky Is Falling nonsense combined with INCREASINGLY extremist behavior is exactly what REAL Republicans(the moderate majority) are sick and tired of. The more of it we see, the more we hold our nose and vote Blue to KILL IT.
That is so problematic. Half the country doesn’t believe in democracy! How does that work?
We didn’t change our minds. It was a large group of us that decided to not tell pollsters that we were actually voting BLUE!!!!
@miss ano Polling is worthless in times of upheaval, division and when voters have a sense of “emergency” to their decisions because that’s when the least polled groups, and usually least politically active, turn out to vote. Frank is onto one (and only one) point, though; news agencies should really shut their damned mouths from now on about projections. At best, they’re stating the obvious, and at worst their inaccuracy affects turnout.
Hey if we going to be like the Handmaiden’s Tale, you think we want to tell pollsters are views??? Think about it for a second… first time I didn’t answer one poll. I’m 44, voted Republican 20 years. Voted all blue except my senatotMurkowski cause she works hard and is prochoice.
@furiousapplesack I think the trouble comes from predicting just who will actually vote.
@miss ano Well yeah… but that’s kind of the whole thing.
Amen 2 that bro. I posted my comment above as such, “Polls is only predicted to be as such to a certain degree, even less accurate than weather man, dum bases belive pollsters bragging who is going win bla bal still have not learned basic lession about big election years!”
This guy didn’t get his numbers right in the first place but now we’re supposed to believe his numbers. They’re so full of it
He’s always been a right wing partisan hack.
well one is called a prediction.
He stated they weren’t his number. I grabbed numbers and used those to predict based off of their research, not his.
Which makes sense. He’s just “reporting” vs. “predicting”.
I hope that guy counts the millions of paper ballots all by himself by hand and in one day.
Guy who posted his prediction of election results on social media: “media needs to stop predicting elections”
@Uniquely You Coaching, Coach G republicans cry about media all the time,just an easy detour when they don’t have the answers to qstns!!
Luntz berating the Media for listening to him.
🤣🤣🤣
🤦🏻♀️😂😂
Funny thing about democracy, everybody is allowed an opinion.
Thank you, Frank, for brainwashing the deplorables and lulling them into a sense of security. Thank you. Thank you.
Exactly! And they want DeSantis to brainwash us all with his policies in Florida he wants to put on the nation!!! No!!
Correct and thank you.
He thought Friday the 13th was Freddy Krueger
Friday the 13th was Jason nightmare on elm Street was Freddy Krueger and there wasn’t 15 of either one of those movies the man’s completely insane and has absolutely no grip or understanding of reality can’t be trusted
The irony is that if they really believe everything should be counted in one day, then their candidate already lost because she’s trailing in the count. I wonder how their opinions might change if she ends up winning.
They are looking for an excuse
Also Arizona elections have been run by Arizona Republicans for decades and decades.
They could have changed it to counting early ballots as soon as the polls closed decades ago.
Ya gotta love the Republicans. First they pass laws making it illegal to count early votes before the polls close. Then they complain that the vote count is taking too long!
This is the problem: Listening to a person that’s actually trying to gaslight everyone once again on air!!
Frank Luntz in a media interview berating the media for listening to people like him. What a time to be alive.
THIS!!
THIS!!
Pretty much, lol!